President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping have agreed to adopt the International Climate Change Agreement that was reached in Paris last December. The cooperation on climate change by the US and China is being touted as a form of leadership that will encourage other countries to adopt the Paris Agreement. The road to hell is paved with good intentions; the agreement between the two presidents may not lead to hell, but it will lead to the United States being the international chump of the year.
For China, the provisions of the agreement do not come into force until 2030, when it pledges to cap its greenhouse gas emissions, which will experience considerable growth over the next 14 years. After that China has only pledged to reduce the ratio of emissions to its GDP. The United States, on the other hand, has pledged to reduce its emissions 26 to 28 percent below its 2005 level.
The difference in obligations, if anyone takes them seriously, is significant. The United States will have to make actual reductions in emissions while China can continue to increase emissions as long as its energy efficiency reduces the ratio of carbon to GDP. The United States has been doing that for decades. According to an Energy Department report, Energy Intensity and Carbon Intensity by the Numbers, the United States has reduced its carbon intensity by 27.7 percent since 2000 and actual emissions are already about 12 percent below the 2005 level. Incremental reductions will be harder and more expensive, not easier.
The Paris Agreement, which enters into force when adopted by at least 55 countries representing at least 55 percent of global emissions, only requires that participating countries submit national plans every five years. Now that the United States and China have entered into the pact, 25 countries representing 39 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are formal participants, according to the United Nations.
But, what does that mean? Developing countries, which contribute 63 percent of global emissions, have been exempt from any obligations to reduce them since 1992. The Paris Agreement makes clear that the priority of developing countries is “economic and social development and poverty eradication.” And even though China has “ratified” the agreement, it remains a developing country.
Although climate activists and the media hail the Paris Agreement as a major breakthrough, it is nothing of the sort. Developing countries will continue to increase emissions as they pursue economic growth. The Energy Information Administration forecasts that fossil fuels will continue to provide around 80 percent of the world’s energy by 2030.
Countries who participate in the Agreement will submit Five-Year Plans and reports without any independent validation or agreed-upon reporting system. Based on the past reporting under the Kyoto Protocol, records can be gamed and honest compliance is likely to be the exception, not the rule.
Only the United States will make the effort to actually comply because of the way our regulatory system works. President Obama has found a way to circumvent the treaty ratification requirement of the Constitution by making support of the Agreement an Executive Agreement that will be implemented by agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency. He has demonstrated over the past 8 years that he can require emission reductions without Congressional legislation.
If Hillary Clinton wins in November, which presently appears likely, these past regulatory trends will almost certainly continue unless Congress find the courage and votes to take corrective action. What is an international fig leaf for the international community is anything but for the United States and will impose real burdens on our economy and advantage our competitors.
William O'Keefe is the President of Solutions Consulting. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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