Every year, economists put pen to paper and make projections for the next 12 months. In addition to forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and consumer spending, they look into their crystal ball to determine what the Federal Reserve will do with its benchmark rate and what long-term interest rates will do in response.
The Federal Reserve has reached an inflection point. As they complete the last rounds of their bond-buying programs, Federal Open Market Committee members must now decide how quickly to bring short-term interest rates back to more normal levels from their current settings of near zero.
Long historical experience suggests that for the United States, average growth between 3 percent and 3.25 percent per year will remain the norm. And given the amount of resource underutilization that remains pervasive throughout the economy today, near-term growth rates well above that long-term average remain clear possibilities.
“There has not been one instance in history where active monetary management has advanced an economy.” So goes the bold claim in the new book by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames, Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy – and What We Can Do About It.
Tax inversions can result in a greater flow of income into the United States. A company such as Medtronic, which is in the process of inverting , can expand its American operations at lower cost than can its competitors.