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Commentary

The daily commentary section provides insights on complex issues in a brief and digestible format. Here you can find analysis of changing economic conditions and original perspectives on how the economy is affecting policy debates.

Time to Lift the Ban on Crude Oil Exports

Preston Cooper | 04/23/2015

This week Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said she would push this year for legislation to end the United States’ export ban on crude oil. “We shouldn’t lift sanctions on Iranian oil while keeping sanctions on American oil,” she said. “It makes no sense.” Murkowski is correct—repealing the ban is long overdue.

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Does America Have Less Economic Mobility? Part 2

Scott Winship | 04/22/2015

Nothing in the Corak, Linduist, and Mazumder paper suggests that U.S. and Swedish levels of mobility differ meaningfully from each other. That still leaves the 2006 paper by Jantti and his coauthors, which found that the U.S. had lower relative mobility—at least for sons starting out at the bottom—than Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the U.K. I’ll explain why this paper’s conclusion is also incorrect and explore some additional research comparing the U.S. to other countries in my final installment.

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Research

e21 spotlights and directly supports new research that's necessary to develop innovative economic policy solutions for the 21st century. This section highlights in-depth research papers from a range of academics, economists and thinkers across the political spectrum, fostering creative nonpartisan policy solutions to pressing economic concerns.

http://www.economics21.org/files/pdf/Calomiris%20Ireland%20Levy.pdf

Guidelines for Policymaking and Communication During Normalization

Federal Reserve policy statements provide a favorable outlook for the U.S. economy with solid economic growth, strong job gains, and renewed momentum heading into 2015. Real gross domestic product, our broadest measure of inflation-adjusted income and spending, grew at an annualized rate very close to 4 percent for the final three quarters of the year just past. More than 3.5 million new jobs have been created, on net, since the beginning of 2014, and at 5.5 percent, the unemployment rate is down more than a full percentage point from 12 months ago. Propelled by these strong fundamentals, and undoubtedly helped along by falling energy prices, too, real disposable personal income growth has accelerated and measures of consumer confidence have moved sharply higher. 

http://www.economics21.org/files/pdf/McCallum_0.pdf

Remarks on John Taylor’s Contributions

Bennett T. McCallum | SOMC | March 20, 2015

John Taylor is of course one of the world’s most influential academic commentators on monetary policy and, I might say, one whose judgements most (if not all) of us on the SOMC usually agree with to a very great extent.  One of his most notable accomplishments is, of course, the development of the well-known “Taylor Rule” as a guideline for the conduct of monetary policy.  Almost every one in this room is, I suspect, at least somewhat familiar with this proposed policy rule.

Morning eBriefs

Each weekday morning, e21 delivers a short email that provides a snap shot of the day's economic news. These eBriefs include e21 exclusive commentaries and the latest market news and updates from Washington.

Multimedia

What Is Next for the Fed?

Caroline Baum and Marvin Goodfriend discuss the Shadow Open Market Committee's core principles and monetary policy.

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Why Your Plan Was Cancelled: Health Insurance and the Affordable Care Act

There's a bizarre reason why millions of Americans saw their health plans cancelled in 2013 and, as explained in a new video featuring Robert Graboyes of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, millions more will lose their plans in years to come. 

Insurance coverage for Americans will remain in permanent turmoil because the Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires that all plans fit within cookie-cutter designs called "metallic tiers." (The tiers—bronze, silver, gold, and platinum—refer to the percentage of medical expenses a particular plan pays.) The video also explains that families may have to switch plans repeatedly because, as circumstances change, a plan that fits within a tier one year may not fit in any tier in a later year.

Please see Dr. Graboyes’ op-ed on this issue (Under Obamacare, Americans Will Continue to Lose Coverage) http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2014/09/22/under-obamacare-americans-will-continue-to-lose-coverage

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